The WTO report shows that global trade in services has recently picked up steadily.
Time:2021-03-17
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The latest issue of the Global Trade in Services Barometer released by the World Trade Organization (WTO) on March 11 shows that after the outbreak of the new coronary pneumonia, the global trade in services has experienced a sharp decline worldwide, and has recently steadily increased, with a high growth momentum. At the trend level, it is in the recovery phase. However, the continued weakness of the service trade sector by industry and the uneven distribution of new pneumonia vaccines raise doubts about the sustainability of the service trade recovery. In general, although the global trade in services has rebounded in the short term, the long-term prospects are still uncertain.
The latest data of the WTO Global Service Trade Index is 104.7, which is much higher than the benchmark level of 100. This data is the strongest since the record (2000), indicating that the growth of global trade in services is in line with recent trends. This latest data is also significantly higher than the 91.2 low point during the peak of the global epidemic-related embargo measures in March 2020. This strong rebound shows that global trade in services accelerated growth in the fourth quarter, bottomed out in the second quarter of 2020, and rebounded slightly in the third quarter.
However, since the beginning of this year, the blockade measures adopted by various countries in response to the second wave of the new coronary pneumonia outbreak continue to put pressure on the growth and employment of the world‘s major economies. The growth momentum of global trade in services cannot even be maintained in the first quarter of 2021.
The composition of service trade indicators reflects the impact of the second wave of the epidemic on global trade in services, including the continued weakness of air transport (the latest data is 81) and the weakness of information and communication technology (ICT) services (the latest data is 93.7). At least in the second quarter of this year, the passenger flow of international passenger aircraft will continue to decline. If the government can successfully vaccinate its people against the new crown pneumonia on a large scale, the decline in the international passenger aircraft ICT index may be temporary. The main reason is The recent stricter lockdown measures taken by the United States have put pressure on certain computer services, while global telecommunications services have generally remained stable. In contrast, the other sub-indices of the Global Service Trade Barometer are above the trend level, including the Global Service Industry Purchasing Managers Index (105.3), the Container Shipping Index (104.3) and the Construction Industry Index (106. 3 ). In particular, the financial services industry index (119.9) shows the growth of international financial transactions.
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