The off-season foreign trade is not decent: a box is hard to find, and the price of dry bulk freight has soared

The strong demand in the foreign trade market and the increase in raw material prices quickly spread to both ends of the shipping link: the shipping prices of containers loaded with merchandise remain high and relatively lagging, and the shipping prices of dry goods centered on bulk commodities have also ushered in a surge this year.

In 2021, when the off-season is not lightly open, we have a more popular start than in previous years. Not only did the foreign trade season that opened in the second half of last year continue, the prices of raw materials on the manufacturing side also rose sharply, and international freight prices continued to rise.

The increase in raw material prices has not been seen in recent years. As an exporter of electric bicycles, Zeng Xiansheng, general manager of Suzhou Mengshi Smart Car Technology Co., Ltd., told China Business News that after the Spring Festival this year, the price of raw materials in the industry has risen by double digits, which not only suppresses profits, but also forces the factory to reserve two more reserves than before. 30% inventory.

The strong demand in the foreign trade market and the increase in raw material prices quickly spread to both ends of the shipping link: the shipping prices of containers loaded with merchandise remain high and relatively lagging, and the shipping prices of dry goods centered on bulk commodities have also ushered in a surge this year.

The background of falling container prices.

From the second half of 2020 to January this year, container shipping prices have risen sharply.

According to the monitoring of where the domestic one-stop international logistics service platform is shipped to, from the second half of last year to January this year, the average price of container shipping on the US and European routes increased by more than 400%. After the Spring Festival this year, the freight rates of some routes fell for the first time since the epidemic. Routes such as the US route and the European route dropped by about 10% from the highest point.

The European and Southeast Asian lines fell most significantly, with the largest amplitude reaching about 30% from the previous highest point. Where to ship CE O Zhou Shihao told CBN reporters that one of the reasons for the decline is the gradual recovery of production capacity in Southeast Asia and other places, and the increase in the turnover rate of containers.

However, in the context of a temporary decline, the shipping price of containers has remained at a high level in general. Zhou Shihao’s prediction is that this year’s international freight rates will continue to be sorted out and the vibration will decrease.

As a long-term observer in the field of international shipping, Chen Yang, editor-in-chief of Xinde Maritime Network, a professional and professional air transport information consulting platform, predicts that the air transport off-season before the Spring Festival this year may not be short, but he admires the recent rise.

This year‘s off-season is not decent. Chen Yang told the CBN reporter that the tight container capacity has not eased after the Spring Festival. At present, global demand for consumer goods is still strong, China‘s status as a world factory has been significantly strengthened under the global epidemic, and the blockage caused by Chinese factories supporting the world‘s single-line output will still exist in the short term.

Since June last year, the growth rate of imports and exports has changed from negative and continued to improve. The growth rate of China‘s foreign trade in the first two months of this year is still significant. According to customs statistics, in the first two months of this year, China’s total import and export volume was 5.44 trillion yuan, an increase of 32.2% over the same period last year (the same below). Among them, exports were 3.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 50.1% and imports were 2.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.5%.

In terms of U.S. dollars, in the first two months, my country’s total import and export value was 834.49 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 41.2%. Among them, exports were 468.87 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 60.6%, and 365.62 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 22.2%, the trade surplus was 103.25 billion U.S. dollars, and the deficit in the same period last year was 7.21 billion U.S. dollars.

Chen Yang said that the prevailing view in the industry is that by the third quarter of this year, the hard-to-find box has not improved significantly. A more pessimistic forecast is that until the spring of 2022, the tension in the supply chain will not significantly ease. So far, even if there is a certain decline in freight, it is still in the historical position in the past ten years.

Chen Yang said: The current idol ratio of containers is less than 1%, and they are not deliberate idols. They must meet the requirements of the Environmental Protection Convention and ship inspections every 5 years. In other words, there are no more ships on the market.

At the end of last year, the Ministry of Commerce proposed to increase transportation, speed up container transportation, improve operational efficiency, and support container manufacturers to expand production capacity. Why can‘t the trend be changed?

According to Chen Yang, the overall container transportation volume in the world last year decreased by 1.1% compared with last year. The reason why it is so popular is that the export of the whole year is concentrated in the second half of the year. Therefore, the absolute number of containers is only structurally inadequate. China does not unconditionally or fully produce new containers.

Roland Berger Management Consulting’s global partners also said before Zhanfu that in this container price carnival, Chinese container manufacturers are still very calm. Related companies work overtime to produce, such as more closely scheduling time, increase the production capacity of workplace time, etc., but very cautious, did not use real money to expand production capacity.

The shipping price for dry goods has doubled.

From the boom in consumers last year to the increase in demand for bulk commodities and raw materials this year, the latter’s feedback has been relatively lagging, and the price of dry cargo transportation has risen significantly since this year.

We are very busy this year. The market has risen as a whole, shipping prices have risen, and the owner’s demand for ships is very large. Gao Xuefeng, China president of MavegaGroup, a world ship brokerage company that mainly transports major commodities such as iron ore, coal and grain, told China Business News that the first quarter of each year is usually the low point of dry cargo transportation, but this year‘s situation is quite special. In the past, the daily rent of Panamax vessels was from 8,000 U.S. dollars to 12,000 U.S. dollars. From the beginning of this year to now, it has increased by 20,000 U.S. dollars.

As a freight index for bulk raw materials, the Baltic Index (BD I) is calculated by weighting several main lines of real-time freight, which can reflect real-time market conditions. According to the BDI Index, the average BD I in the first quarter of 2021 is 1579, which is significantly higher than the average of 1066 in 2020 last year and 592 in the first quarter of 2020.

At the same time, for the different ship types of the index Baltic Sea Dai Type Shipping Price Index (BCI), Baltic Sea Panamax Bulk Carrier Price Index (BPI) and Baltic Sea Super Handy Type Bulk Carrier Price Index (BS I) in The first quarter of this year ushered in a rise of different magnitudes, among which the rise of BS I was the most obvious.

Chen Yang said that the freight rate of small dry bulk ships has risen most obviously, at least doubling from a month ago. This kind of ship mainly transports grain, and to a certain extent, it is affected by the increase in the amount of grain imported by China from countries such as the United States and Brazil.

According to official data from Ningbo Zhoushan Port Zhoushan Port Co., Ltd., on March 13, the company‘s grain cargo throughput this year exceeded 2 million tons 63 days earlier than last year, an increase of 89.97% over the previous year.

According to customs statistics, in the first two months of this year, the import prices of iron ore, plastics, steel and copper materials have risen, and the import prices of commodities such as crude oil and natural gas have risen.

Among them, in the first two months, my country imported 182 million tons of iron ore, an increase of 2.8%. The average import price was 942.1 yuan per ton, an increase of 46.7%, and the primary form of plastic was 5.61 million tons, an increase of 8%. The price was 10,200 yuan per ton, an increase of 9.1%, the steel was 2,395,500 tons, an increase of 17.4%, and the average import price was 71,34.8 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.9%.

In addition, China imported 89,568,800 tons of crude oil in the first two months, an increase of 4.1%. The average import price was 2470.5 yuan per ton, a decrease of 27.5%. Natural gas was 20.796 million tons, an increase of 17.4%. The average import price was 2292.2 yuan per ton, down 17.1%.

In addition to the general increase in imports of bulk commodities, Chen Yang believes that with the busy dry bulk shipping, containers are still affected by the explosion. He explained that a container is hard to find and urgently transports the container back to China. In the past, containers shipped back to China might be equipped with corn and other grains to be shipped back, but now more often they are shipped back to empty containers as soon as possible to ease the tension of domestic containers. At the same time, many ships that can install all kinds of dry cargo have also begun to pick up and install containers, occupying the transportation capacity of dry cargo ships, thus changing the supply and demand relationship in this field.

In Gao Xuefeng‘s view, this year‘s international shipping market is expected to surpass before the epidemic. From January this year to now, the price and quantity of dry bulk shipping have far exceeded the highest point last year. It is expected that the market in 2021 will be better than 2019 before the epidemic. 

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